Talking Tactics | Swansea City v Cardiff City

Swansea City will look to bounce back from last week's defeat to Bristol City when they welcome rivals Cardiff City to the Swansea.com Stadium on Saturday.

Here, WhoScored.com preview the south Wales derby, looking at what to expect from Cardiff, the key battle and a key stat.

What to expect from Cardiff

Erol Bulut takes his men down the M4 this weekend looking to build upon Cardiff's recent decent form.

A late, late 2-1 win over promotion-chasing Ipswich extended their winning streak to four matches.

Cardiff, though, haven't been particularly strong on their travels in recent weeks, losing three of their last five. A 1-0 win at Bristol City last time out on the road saw the Bluebirds bounce back following back-to-back away defeats.

Bulut has favoured a 4-2-3-1 setup in the Championship this season, and he's unlikely to deviate from that formation against the Swans.

The system relies upon the directness of the wingers, notably Josh Bowler and, potentially, Callum O'Dowda this weekend, with the latter potentially rewarded with a start following his winning goal off the bench against Ipswich.

Bowler, in particular, has proved an effective wide outlet for Cardiff, with the 25-year-old ranking third for dribbles per 90 (1.7) of all Bluebirds players this season.

The desire to stretch the play has seen Cardiff develop a statistically-calculated WhoScored.com style of play of 'play with width' and that shouldn't come as a shock with just 22 per cent - the third lowest in the division - of their attacks coming through the middle of the pitch.

In addition, 41 per cent of their attacks come down Bowler's right flank, that the third-highest proportion in the Championship, so limiting the time the winger has on the ball could be of the utmost importance.

Bulut is prepared to sacrifice possession to and utilise the wingers to spring forward quickly, with Cardiff's possession average of 44.2 per cent the sixth-lowest in the Championship.

While a reactive approach may not be to everyone's appeal, it's a plan that is currently working, so expect Cardiff, who have lost on four of their last five trips to Swansea, to dig deep and seek to hit their rivals on the counter.

Key Battle

The statistically-calculated WhoScored.com match forecast suggests it is 'likely' that Swansea will dominate possession.

There are few better at helping ensure this forecast comes to fruition than skipper Matt Grimes. Indeed, Grimes ranks seventh for passes per game (78.7) in the Championship this season, while a success rate of 88.6 per cent is the 36th-best in England's second tier.

Grimes understands the assignment that comes with performing against Swansea's bitter rivals, and will seek to lead the way for his side on derby day.

A desire to retain the ball will not only limit Cardiff's chance to get the ball wide to the wingers, but minimise David Turnbull's influence in the final third too.

Turnbull moved to Cardiff in January and, while only five of his nine appearances have come from the outset, he has shown he can challenge defences.

His 1.9 key passes per 90 is the joint-most of all players for Bulut's side in the Championship this season. The 24-year-old has just one assist to his name since his arrival, but Swansea would be wise to not present him with the chance to build upon that return this weekend.

Key Stat

Cardiff are outperforming their expected goals against by 7.3 in the Championship this season, the fourth-highest such figure in the division.

This means they should, according to WhoScored.com's xG model, have conceded at least seven more goals than they have done this season.

With the Bluebirds heading into the derby in good form, Swansea will need to make sure they make the most of their chances.