Talking Tactics | Blackburn Rovers v Swansea City

Swansea secured a 2-1 win over Blackpool in midweek, and they are now just five points outside of the play-offs. Up against a promotion rival in Blackburn on Saturday, WhoScored.com preview the weekend's trip to Ewood Park, taking a look at what to expect from Rovers, the key battle and a key stat.

What to expect from Blackburn

Under the watchful eye of Jon Dahl Tomasson, Blackburn have been among the promotion contenders for much of the season even if they have struggled to find the sort of consistency the former AC Milan and Newcastle forward would have hoped for.

After opening the campaign with three successive wins, they fell to three defeats on the trot, and that has rather set the tone for a season in which they have 13 wins under their belt as well as 14 defeats.

For a period it was all or nothing for Rovers, who only last month drew their first league game of the campaign as they were held to a 1-1 draw at Bristol City. They are now on a four-game drawing streak, while defeat at Rotherham prior to the aforementioned stalemate means they have failed to win in five.

Tomasson has favoured a 4-2-3-1 setup this season, going against the grain of so many Championship sides that prefer a three-man backline, and it's a system that seeks to bring out the best in Ben Brereton Diaz, who can use his attacking prowess from the left.

Brereton Diaz is Blackburn's top scorer this season with 10 league goals, while no Rovers player has registered more assists than the Chile international (4).

Given his threat it is no surprise that 39% of Blackburn's attacks come down the left flank, the sixth highest proportion in the Championship this season, to reinforce one of their statistically calculated WhoScored.com styles of play of 'attacking down the left'.

With a WhoScored.com rating of 6.75, Diaz is Blackburn's third best-rated player this season, so maximising his attacking threat has been key.

However, while Diaz is the main goal threat for Rovers, there are others at Tomasson's disposal that can pry apart defences. One of Blackburn's two statistically calculated WhoScored.com strengths is 'creating chances using through balls' as they look to thread a pass to the attackers to do the damage in the final third.

Blackburn rank second for attempted through balls (46) and third for accurate through balls (19) in the Championship this season and it's a route to goal for Rovers that Swansea do need to be wary of.

At the other end of the pitch a return of 12.2 shots conceded per game is the eighth highest in the division, though goalkeeper Aynsley Pears has stood in for regular number one Thomas Kaminski well.

Yet Swansea rank fifth for shots per game (12.9) in England's second tier so it makes for an intriguing match-up following Rovers' 3-0 win in south Wales earlier this season.

Key battle

Given Brereton Diaz's goal return, it's clear the Chilean forward is Rovers' primary attacking threat.

The 23-year-old is leaving Rovers for Villarreal in the summer, so Blackburn will be hoping his final act will be to fire them to the Premier League.

Brereton Diaz scored in the reverse fixture, and recently ended a nine-game goal drought, so will be looking to build upon his 10th league goal of the campaign last time out.

Matty Sorinola is likely to be the man tasked with preventing him from adding to his 10 league goals, the 21-year-old a solid performer when called upon by Russell Martin this season.

Sorinola is putting up respectable averages of 1.6 tackles and 0.7 interceptions per 90 in the 2022-23 Championship campaign, and he can be an important figure if he can build on his showing against Blackpool in midweek.

Key stat

Blackburn are one of the lowest scorers in the Championship this season, having hit the back of the net just 33 times.

Only Rotherham (8.5) are averaging fewer shots per game than Blackburn (9) in England's second tier this term.

Swansea are shipping the second fewest shots per game (9.7) in 2022-23, but have conceded the joint-fourth highest number of goals in the Championship.

All of which makes for an interesting match up between two sides desperate for a win to boost those play-off aspirations.